Rising with High Hopes

Markets are Rising with High hopes

Most of the NSE listed companies have filed their Jun-14 quarter’s result. In the following analysis we have excluded BFSIs.

1. Only 53% of Companies posted Profit, rest of the companies posted loss. This is indeed concerning.
2. Median quarterly PAT is only Rs 30 mn for Jun-14. For Jun-08, it is around Rs 60 mn, which is also the highest in last 36 quarters.
3. Median Mkt cap at the end of Jun-14 quarter is Rs 3500 mn, which is one of the highest excluding Dec-07 quarter.
4. Is Stock market acting as lead indicator of profitability set for improvement ????, though there are no early signs visible.

One can use excel sheets placed on This Page: Identify Stock.

What Fund Manager Bought/Sold in July-14

Following is the Summary of Domestic Fund Manager Activity in Indian stock market. Stocks are arranged on the basis of magnitude of buying / selling interest.

One who wishes to analyze more on this can check this file “Fund Holding Chg”

No	Stock	AMC (Buying Interest)	AMC (Selling Interest)
1	M & M	ICICI
2	Bharti Airtel	ICICI, HDFC, DSP BR	Reliance
3	Reliance Inds.	ICICI	DSP BR
4	Wipro	ICICI
5	Aban Offshore	ICICI
6	I D F C	ICICI
7	HDFC Bank	ICICI, Reliance	SBI
8	Infosys		ICICI, HDFC, IDFC, FT
9	Rural Elec.Corp.		HDFC
10	St Bk of India	HDFC	ICICI, DSP BR
11	ITC		ICICI, UTI
12	NTPC		UTI
13	Yes Bank		ICICI, SBI
14	Tata Steel	Reliance
15	Marico	ICICI
16	Union Bank (I)		ICICI
17	ICICI Bank	HDFC
18	B H E L	HDFC
19	JP Associates	Birla
20	Kotak Mah. Bank	Birla, SBI
21	H D F C		ICICI, Reliance
22	Dr Reddy's Labs	ICICI
23	Multi Comm. Exc.		IDFC
24	UltraTech Cem.	FT, DSP BR
25	Ashok Leyland	DSP BR
26	Punjab Natl.Bank	ICICI, UTI
27	Motherson Sumi		ICICI, Birla
28	Britannia Inds.	ICICI
29	Coal India		Reliance
30	Crompton Greaves	Reliance, UTI
31	HCL Technologies	Birla, FT

Defensives continue to rock (Nifty Cos performance in 1QFY15)

1. Nifty companies (excluding Sesa Sterlite) consolidated profit growth came at 17.6%. However, if we look at the sector-wise and company-wise growth, it is not so impressive.
2. In Auto Sector, Tata motors posted exceptional performance, while other Auto companies posted flat or negative growth. (Bajaj Auto, HeroMotocorp, M&M and Maruti)
3. Most Cement company's profit fell, only Ambuja cement posted PAT growth of 26%. (Other cement companies ACC, Grasim, Ultratech)
4. In capital goods space, where BHEL fell by more than 50%, L&T profit almost doubled.
5. FMCG companies (HUVR, ITC) posted steady growth.
6. I.T. companies posted very impressive growth (at least 30%). Tech Mahindra is an exception, whose profit fell by 8%.
7. Pharma companies (Dr Reddy,Lupin and Sun Pharma) posted Pat growth more than 50%.
8. Power sector had lack luster performance.
9. Bharti Airtel’s PAT doubled.
10. Banks posted 12% growth in profits.

Defensives continue to rock (Nifty Cos performance in 1QFY15)

1. Nifty companies (excluding Sesa Sterlite) consolidated profit growth came at 17.6%. However, if we look at the sector-wise and company-wise growth, it is not so impressive.
2. In Auto Sector, Tata motors posted exceptional performance, while other Auto companies posted flat or negative growth. (Bajaj Auto, HeroMotocorp, M&M and Maruti)
3. Most Cement company's profit fell, only Ambuja cement posted PAT growth of 26%. (Other cement companies ACC, Grasim, Ultratech)
4. In capital goods space, where BHEL fell by more than 50%, L&T profit almost doubled.
5. FMCG companies (HUVR, ITC) posted steady growth.
6. I.T. companies posted very impressive growth (at least 30%). Tech Mahindra is an exception, whose profit fell by 8%.
7. Pharma companies (Dr Reddy,Lupin and Sun Pharma) posted Pat growth more than 50%.
8. Power sector had lack luster performance.
9. Bharti Airtel’s PAT doubled.
10. Banks posted 12% growth in profits.

To check the performance of NSE listed companies use this excel On-going Result Season

You can also use Stock Valuation Guide for more detailed study.

Defensives continue to rock (Nifty Cos performance in 1QFY15)

1. Nifty companies (excluding Sesa Sterlite) consolidated profit growth came at 17.6%. However, if we look at the sector-wise and company-wise growth, it is not so impressive.
2. In Auto Sector, Tata motors posted exceptional performance, while other Auto companies posted flat or negative growth. (Bajaj Auto, HeroMotocorp, M&M and Maruti)
3. Most Cement company's profit fell, only Ambuja cement posted PAT growth of 26%. (Other cement companies ACC, Grasim, Ultratech)
4. In capital goods space, where BHEL fell by more than 50%, L&T profit almost doubled.
5. FMCG companies (HUVR, ITC) posted steady growth.
6. I.T. companies posted very impressive growth (at least 30%). Tech Mahindra is an exception, whose profit fell by 8%.
7. Pharma companies (Dr Reddy,Lupin and Sun Pharma) posted Pat growth more than 50%.
8. Power sector had lack luster performance.
9. Bharti Airtel’s PAT doubled.
10. Banks posted 12% growth in profits.

To check the performance of NSE listed companies use this excel On-going Result Season

You can also use Stock Valuation Guide for more detailed study.

Nifty Companies Performance at glance for 1QFY15

IIP Jun-14 (Are consumers shying away from markets ???)

1. IIP for Jun-14 came at 3.4%, which does not indicate healthy recovery in growth momentum of Indian Economy, which most of us believe that is on its way.
2. I personally believe that, If we see IIP growth of more than 5% consequently for few months, we can say that our economy’s growth engine has finally started once again.
3. Consumer goods segment is this month’s dragger. At the same time Capital goods segment posted impressive growth of 23%.
4. To get rid of seasonality impact, low / high base effect and such other issues, I prefer to look at 12 Month Moving Average (12MMA) YoY growth, where we can more easily analyze the trend.
5. Accordingly one may conclude that, i) Manufacturing activities (accounts 76% of IIP) haven’t kicked. ii) Its only because of Mining and Electricity that General IIP (12MMA) growth is 1.6%. iii) Consumer goods, which accounts for 30% of IIP has 12 MMA growth of -3.1%, corresponding number for Jun-13 works out to be -0.13%. Are consumers shying away from markets ???

To enable you to dissect more on this, I have placed an Excel “IIP_and_its_constitutents_(Series 2004-05)” which you can use.

IIP and its Break-down across various categories (Monthly)
						YoY Growth (%) for the month
	Category			Weight (%)		Jun-14	May-14	Jun-13
1	Manufacturing				75.5	1.8	5.1	-1.7
2	Mining & Quarrying				14.2	4.3	2.9	-4.6
3	Electricity				10.3	15.7	6.7	0.0
	General IIP				100.0	3.4	5.0	-1.8
	Use based Categories
1	Basic Goods				45.7	9.0	6.4	-1.9
2	Capital Goods				8.8	23.0	4.3	-6.6
3	Intermediate Goods				15.7	2.7	3.2	1.3
4	Consumer Goods				29.8	-10.0	4.2	-1.5
4.1	Consumer Durables			8.5		-23.4	3.4	-10.1
4.2	Consumer Non-durables			21.4		0.1	4.8	6.2

12 Month Moving Average (MMA)
						YoY Growth (%) for 12 MMA
	Category			Weight (%)		Jun-14	May-14	Jun-13
1	Manufacturing				75.5	0.6	0.1	1.1
2	Mining & Quarrying				14.2	2.5	2.2	-4.2
3	Electricity				10.3	9.5	8.1	2.9
	General IIP				100.0	1.6	1.1	0.7
	Use based Categories
1	Basic Goods				45.7	5.7	4.7	0.8
2	Capital Goods				8.8	-0.6	-4.3	1.5
3	Intermediate Goods				15.7	3.1	3.5	1.6
4	Consumer Goods				29.8	-3.1	-2.3	-0.2
4.1	Consumer Durables			8.5		-9.8	-8.7	-7.8
4.2	Consumer Non-durables			21.4		1.7	2.1	6.0

Key Charts

Auto Sales Numbers for July-14

SIAM released monthly Auto Sales Numbers for July-14.

Commercial vehicles sales continued to show negative growth of 13.6% for July-14. Cumulative growth for 4 months (April to July) is -15.5%.

However, Multi utility vehicles sales jumped by 18.6%.

Passenger cars sales grew by 5% in July-14.

Within, two wheeler segment, scooters continued to post whopping growth of 37%. Even Apr-July period YoY growth is as high as 31%.

Three wheeler segment also posted robust growth of 24% for the month.

 

Auto_Sales_numbers_for_Analysis

 

Refer growth numbers in below table.

 

		YoY Growth (%) for
		Month	FY till date
	Nos	Jul-14	FY13	FY14	FY15
Medium & Heavy CV
Passenger	2,950	-27.0	18.2	-7.7	-22.7
Goods	14,849	1.9	-17.9	-18.9	-4.4
Total	17,799	-4.4	-12.5	-16.7	-8.5
Light CV
Passenger	4,305	5.0	12.6	-6.1	-2.3
Goods	25,661	-21.3	18.6	-6.1	-21.3
Total	29,966	-18.3	17.9	-6.1	-19.0
CV Total	47,765	-13.6	4.7	-9.9	-15.5
Multi Utility	44,945	18.6	50.3	-0.5	7.4
Passenager Cars	137,873	5.0	4.7	-9.7	2.9
Vans	16,617	-8.0	-12.7	-2.4	-12.2
Two Wheelers
Motor cycles	859,290	6.2	6.4	-3.4	8.9
Mopeds	56,036	9.4	4.0	-13.1	4.3
Scooters	372,136	37.1	26.7	13.1	30.8
Total	1,287,462	13.7	9.8	-0.6	13.7
Three wheelers	51,461	23.8	0.8	-3.4	15.0