FIIs, DIIs - Sailing in same direction !!!

Most of the time, FIIs & DIIs act contrary to each other in Indian Equity Market. But, Aug-14 happens to be the month where both type of Institutional player were Buyer. And more importantly, of the similar magnitude.

Following are the 11 instances (out of 90 months), where FIIs & DIIs, both were buyer. At most of the instances market took a big leap.

Source	BSE		NSE	BSE, NSE
				Rs Crores
Month	Sensex	% Chg	Nifty	FII (Net)	DII (Net)
Aug-14	26,638	2.9	7,954	2,681	2,335
Feb-14	21,120	3.0	6,277	1,059	287
Jun-12	17,430	7.5	5,279	2,537	1,171
Mar-11	19,445	9.1	5,834	8,395	58
Nov-10	19,521	-2.6	5,863	5,518	2,493
Apr-10	17,559	0.2	5,278	2,667	2,191
Dec-09	17,465	3.2	5,201	4,241	50
Nov-09	16,926	6.5	5,033	1,708	2,391
Sep-09	17,127	9.3	5,084	12,643	770
Dec-08	9,647	6.1	2,959	1,035	1,906
Apr-07	13,872	6.1	4,088	1,735	858

Following are the 10 months following those months, when FII & DII, both were Buyer. Market rallied on 4 occasions and fell on 6 occasions.

Source	BSE		NSE	BSE, NSE
				Rs Crores
Month	Sensex	% Chg	Nifty	FII (Net)	DII (Net)
Mar-14	22,386	6.0	6,704	25,377	-13,131
Jul-12	17,236	-1.1	5,229	5,903	-5,271
Apr-11	19,136	-1.6	5,750	4	-558
Dec-10	20,509	5.1	6,135	-642	-482
May-10	16,945	-3.5	5,086	-12,071	6,361
Jan-10	16,358	-6.3	4,882	-7,217	12,222
Dec-09	17,465	3.2	5,201	4,241	50
Oct-09	15,896	-7.2	4,712	577	-41
Jan-09	9,424	-2.3	2,875	-5,173	3,718
May-07	14,544	4.8	4,296	-189	3,054

You can use Market_Pulse.xlsm for more data on this.

Rising with High Hopes

Markets are Rising with High hopes

Most of the NSE listed companies have filed their Jun-14 quarter’s result. In the following analysis we have excluded BFSIs.

1. Only 53% of Companies posted Profit, rest of the companies posted loss. This is indeed concerning.
2. Median quarterly PAT is only Rs 30 mn for Jun-14. For Jun-08, it is around Rs 60 mn, which is also the highest in last 36 quarters.
3. Median Mkt cap at the end of Jun-14 quarter is Rs 3500 mn, which is one of the highest excluding Dec-07 quarter.
4. Is Stock market acting as lead indicator of profitability set for improvement ????, though there are no early signs visible.

One can use excel sheets placed on This Page: Identify Stock.

What Fund Manager Bought/Sold in July-14

Following is the Summary of Domestic Fund Manager Activity in Indian stock market. Stocks are arranged on the basis of magnitude of buying / selling interest.

One who wishes to analyze more on this can check this file “Fund Holding Chg”

No	Stock	AMC (Buying Interest)	AMC (Selling Interest)
1	M & M	ICICI
2	Bharti Airtel	ICICI, HDFC, DSP BR	Reliance
3	Reliance Inds.	ICICI	DSP BR
4	Wipro	ICICI
5	Aban Offshore	ICICI
6	I D F C	ICICI
7	HDFC Bank	ICICI, Reliance	SBI
8	Infosys		ICICI, HDFC, IDFC, FT
9	Rural Elec.Corp.		HDFC
10	St Bk of India	HDFC	ICICI, DSP BR
11	ITC		ICICI, UTI
12	NTPC		UTI
13	Yes Bank		ICICI, SBI
14	Tata Steel	Reliance
15	Marico	ICICI
16	Union Bank (I)		ICICI
17	ICICI Bank	HDFC
18	B H E L	HDFC
19	JP Associates	Birla
20	Kotak Mah. Bank	Birla, SBI
21	H D F C		ICICI, Reliance
22	Dr Reddy's Labs	ICICI
23	Multi Comm. Exc.		IDFC
24	UltraTech Cem.	FT, DSP BR
25	Ashok Leyland	DSP BR
26	Punjab Natl.Bank	ICICI, UTI
27	Motherson Sumi		ICICI, Birla
28	Britannia Inds.	ICICI
29	Coal India		Reliance
30	Crompton Greaves	Reliance, UTI
31	HCL Technologies	Birla, FT

Defensives continue to rock (Nifty Cos performance in 1QFY15)

1. Nifty companies (excluding Sesa Sterlite) consolidated profit growth came at 17.6%. However, if we look at the sector-wise and company-wise growth, it is not so impressive.
2. In Auto Sector, Tata motors posted exceptional performance, while other Auto companies posted flat or negative growth. (Bajaj Auto, HeroMotocorp, M&M and Maruti)
3. Most Cement company's profit fell, only Ambuja cement posted PAT growth of 26%. (Other cement companies ACC, Grasim, Ultratech)
4. In capital goods space, where BHEL fell by more than 50%, L&T profit almost doubled.
5. FMCG companies (HUVR, ITC) posted steady growth.
6. I.T. companies posted very impressive growth (at least 30%). Tech Mahindra is an exception, whose profit fell by 8%.
7. Pharma companies (Dr Reddy,Lupin and Sun Pharma) posted Pat growth more than 50%.
8. Power sector had lack luster performance.
9. Bharti Airtel’s PAT doubled.
10. Banks posted 12% growth in profits.

Defensives continue to rock (Nifty Cos performance in 1QFY15)

1. Nifty companies (excluding Sesa Sterlite) consolidated profit growth came at 17.6%. However, if we look at the sector-wise and company-wise growth, it is not so impressive.
2. In Auto Sector, Tata motors posted exceptional performance, while other Auto companies posted flat or negative growth. (Bajaj Auto, HeroMotocorp, M&M and Maruti)
3. Most Cement company's profit fell, only Ambuja cement posted PAT growth of 26%. (Other cement companies ACC, Grasim, Ultratech)
4. In capital goods space, where BHEL fell by more than 50%, L&T profit almost doubled.
5. FMCG companies (HUVR, ITC) posted steady growth.
6. I.T. companies posted very impressive growth (at least 30%). Tech Mahindra is an exception, whose profit fell by 8%.
7. Pharma companies (Dr Reddy,Lupin and Sun Pharma) posted Pat growth more than 50%.
8. Power sector had lack luster performance.
9. Bharti Airtel’s PAT doubled.
10. Banks posted 12% growth in profits.

To check the performance of NSE listed companies use this excel On-going Result Season

You can also use Stock Valuation Guide for more detailed study.

Defensives continue to rock (Nifty Cos performance in 1QFY15)

1. Nifty companies (excluding Sesa Sterlite) consolidated profit growth came at 17.6%. However, if we look at the sector-wise and company-wise growth, it is not so impressive.
2. In Auto Sector, Tata motors posted exceptional performance, while other Auto companies posted flat or negative growth. (Bajaj Auto, HeroMotocorp, M&M and Maruti)
3. Most Cement company's profit fell, only Ambuja cement posted PAT growth of 26%. (Other cement companies ACC, Grasim, Ultratech)
4. In capital goods space, where BHEL fell by more than 50%, L&T profit almost doubled.
5. FMCG companies (HUVR, ITC) posted steady growth.
6. I.T. companies posted very impressive growth (at least 30%). Tech Mahindra is an exception, whose profit fell by 8%.
7. Pharma companies (Dr Reddy,Lupin and Sun Pharma) posted Pat growth more than 50%.
8. Power sector had lack luster performance.
9. Bharti Airtel’s PAT doubled.
10. Banks posted 12% growth in profits.

To check the performance of NSE listed companies use this excel On-going Result Season

You can also use Stock Valuation Guide for more detailed study.

Nifty Companies Performance at glance for 1QFY15

IIP Jun-14 (Are consumers shying away from markets ???)

1. IIP for Jun-14 came at 3.4%, which does not indicate healthy recovery in growth momentum of Indian Economy, which most of us believe that is on its way.
2. I personally believe that, If we see IIP growth of more than 5% consequently for few months, we can say that our economy’s growth engine has finally started once again.
3. Consumer goods segment is this month’s dragger. At the same time Capital goods segment posted impressive growth of 23%.
4. To get rid of seasonality impact, low / high base effect and such other issues, I prefer to look at 12 Month Moving Average (12MMA) YoY growth, where we can more easily analyze the trend.
5. Accordingly one may conclude that, i) Manufacturing activities (accounts 76% of IIP) haven’t kicked. ii) Its only because of Mining and Electricity that General IIP (12MMA) growth is 1.6%. iii) Consumer goods, which accounts for 30% of IIP has 12 MMA growth of -3.1%, corresponding number for Jun-13 works out to be -0.13%. Are consumers shying away from markets ???

To enable you to dissect more on this, I have placed an Excel “IIP_and_its_constitutents_(Series 2004-05)” which you can use.

IIP and its Break-down across various categories (Monthly)
						YoY Growth (%) for the month
	Category			Weight (%)		Jun-14	May-14	Jun-13
1	Manufacturing				75.5	1.8	5.1	-1.7
2	Mining & Quarrying				14.2	4.3	2.9	-4.6
3	Electricity				10.3	15.7	6.7	0.0
	General IIP				100.0	3.4	5.0	-1.8
	Use based Categories
1	Basic Goods				45.7	9.0	6.4	-1.9
2	Capital Goods				8.8	23.0	4.3	-6.6
3	Intermediate Goods				15.7	2.7	3.2	1.3
4	Consumer Goods				29.8	-10.0	4.2	-1.5
4.1	Consumer Durables			8.5		-23.4	3.4	-10.1
4.2	Consumer Non-durables			21.4		0.1	4.8	6.2

12 Month Moving Average (MMA)
						YoY Growth (%) for 12 MMA
	Category			Weight (%)		Jun-14	May-14	Jun-13
1	Manufacturing				75.5	0.6	0.1	1.1
2	Mining & Quarrying				14.2	2.5	2.2	-4.2
3	Electricity				10.3	9.5	8.1	2.9
	General IIP				100.0	1.6	1.1	0.7
	Use based Categories
1	Basic Goods				45.7	5.7	4.7	0.8
2	Capital Goods				8.8	-0.6	-4.3	1.5
3	Intermediate Goods				15.7	3.1	3.5	1.6
4	Consumer Goods				29.8	-3.1	-2.3	-0.2
4.1	Consumer Durables			8.5		-9.8	-8.7	-7.8
4.2	Consumer Non-durables			21.4		1.7	2.1	6.0

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