Wednesday 3 September 2014

FIIs, DIIs - Sailing in same direction !!!

Most of the time, FIIs & DIIs act contrary to each other in Indian Equity Market. But, Aug-14 happens to be the month where both type of Institutional player were Buyer. And more importantly, of the similar magnitude.

Following are the 11 instances (out of 90 months), where FIIs & DIIs, both were buyer. At most of the instances market took a big leap.

Source
BSE

NSE
BSE, NSE





Rs Crores

Month
Sensex
% Chg
Nifty
FII (Net)
DII (Net)
Aug-14
26,638
2.9
7,954
2,681
2,335
Feb-14
21,120
3.0
6,277
1,059
287
Jun-12
17,430
7.5
5,279
2,537
1,171
Mar-11
19,445
9.1
5,834
8,395
58
Nov-10
19,521
-2.6
5,863
5,518
2,493
Apr-10
17,559
0.2
5,278
2,667
2,191
Dec-09
17,465
3.2
5,201
4,241
50
Nov-09
16,926
6.5
5,033
1,708
2,391
Sep-09
17,127
9.3
5,084
12,643
770
Dec-08
9,647
6.1
2,959
1,035
1,906
Apr-07
13,872
6.1
4,088
1,735
858







Following are the 10 months following those months, when FII & DII, both were Buyer. Market rallied on 4 occasions and fell on 6 occasions.

Source
BSE

NSE
BSE, NSE





Rs Crores

Month
Sensex
% Chg
Nifty
FII (Net)
DII (Net)
Mar-14
22,386
6.0
6,704
25,377
-13,131
Jul-12
17,236
-1.1
5,229
5,903
-5,271
Apr-11
19,136
-1.6
5,750
4
-558
Dec-10
20,509
5.1
6,135
-642
-482
May-10
16,945
-3.5
5,086
-12,071
6,361
Jan-10
16,358
-6.3
4,882
-7,217
12,222
Dec-09
17,465
3.2
5,201
4,241
50
Oct-09
15,896
-7.2
4,712
577
-41
Jan-09
9,424
-2.3
2,875
-5,173
3,718
May-07
14,544
4.8
4,296
-189
3,054







You can use Market_Pulse.xlsm for more data on this.

Friday 22 August 2014

Rising with High Hopes

Markets are Rising with High hopes

Most of the NSE listed companies have filed their Jun-14 quarter’s result. In the following analysis we have excluded BFSIs.
  1. Only 53% of Companies posted Profit, rest of the companies posted loss. This is indeed concerning.
  2. Median quarterly PAT is only Rs 30 mn for Jun-14. For Jun-08, it is around Rs 60 mn, which is also the highest in last 36 quarters.
  3. Median Mkt cap at the end of Jun-14 quarter is Rs 3500 mn, which is one of the highest excluding Dec-07 quarter.
  4. Is Stock market acting as lead indicator of profitability set for improvement ????, though there are no early signs visible.






One can use excel sheets placed on This Page: Identify Stock.







Monday 18 August 2014

What Fund Manager Bought/Sold in July-14

Following is the Summary of Domestic Fund Manager Activity in Indian stock market. Stocks are arranged on the basis of magnitude of buying / selling interest.
One who wishes to analyze more on this can check this file Fund Holding Chg

No
Stock
AMC (Buying Interest)
AMC (Selling Interest)
1
M & M
ICICI

2
Bharti Airtel
ICICI, HDFC, DSP BR
Reliance
3
Reliance Inds.
ICICI
DSP BR
4
Wipro
ICICI

5
Aban Offshore
ICICI

6
I D F C
ICICI

7
HDFC Bank
ICICI, Reliance
SBI
8
Infosys

ICICI, HDFC, IDFC, FT
9
Rural Elec.Corp.

HDFC
10
St Bk of India
HDFC
ICICI, DSP BR
11
ITC

ICICI, UTI
12
NTPC

UTI
13
Yes Bank

ICICI, SBI
14
Tata Steel
Reliance

15
Marico
ICICI

16
Union Bank (I)

ICICI
17
ICICI Bank
HDFC

18
B H E L
HDFC

19
JP Associates
Birla

20
Kotak Mah. Bank
Birla, SBI

21
H D F C

ICICI, Reliance
22
Dr Reddy's Labs
ICICI

23
Multi Comm. Exc.

IDFC
24
UltraTech Cem.
FT, DSP BR

25
Ashok Leyland
DSP BR

26
Punjab Natl.Bank
ICICI, UTI

27
Motherson Sumi

ICICI, Birla
28
Britannia Inds.
ICICI

29
Coal India

Reliance
30
Crompton Greaves
Reliance, UTI

31
HCL Technologies
Birla, FT






Sunday 17 August 2014

Defensives continue to rock (Nifty Cos performance in 1QFY15)

  1. Nifty companies (excluding Sesa Sterlite) consolidated profit growth came at 17.6%. However, if we look at the sector-wise and company-wise growth, it is not so impressive.
  2. In Auto Sector, Tata motors posted exceptional performance, while other Auto companies posted flat or negative growth. (Bajaj Auto, HeroMotocorp, M&M and Maruti)
  3. Most Cement company's profit fell, only Ambuja cement posted PAT growth of 26%. (Other cement companies ACC, Grasim, Ultratech)
  4. In capital goods space, where BHEL fell by more than 50%, L&T profit almost doubled.
  5. FMCG companies (HUVR, ITC) posted steady growth.
  6. I.T. companies posted very impressive growth (at least 30%). Tech Mahindra is an exception, whose profit fell by 8%.
  7. Pharma companies (Dr Reddy,Lupin and Sun Pharma) posted Pat growth more than 50%.
  8. Power sector had lack luster performance.
  9. Bharti Airtel’s PAT doubled.
  10. Banks posted 12% growth in profits.

Saturday 16 August 2014

Defensives continue to rock (Nifty Cos performance in 1QFY15)

  1. Nifty companies (excluding Sesa Sterlite) consolidated profit growth came at 17.6%. However, if we look at the sector-wise and company-wise growth, it is not so impressive.
  2. In Auto Sector, Tata motors posted exceptional performance, while other Auto companies posted flat or negative growth. (Bajaj Auto, HeroMotocorp, M&M and Maruti)
  3. Most Cement company's profit fell, only Ambuja cement posted PAT growth of 26%. (Other cement companies ACC, Grasim, Ultratech)
  4. In capital goods space, where BHEL fell by more than 50%, L&T profit almost doubled.
  5. FMCG companies (HUVR, ITC) posted steady growth.
  6. I.T. companies posted very impressive growth (at least 30%). Tech Mahindra is an exception, whose profit fell by 8%.
  7. Pharma companies (Dr Reddy,Lupin and Sun Pharma) posted Pat growth more than 50%.
  8. Power sector had lack luster performance.
  9. Bharti Airtel’s PAT doubled.
  10. Banks posted 12% growth in profits.

To check the performance of NSE listed companies use this excel On-going Result Season

You can also use Stock Valuation Guide for more detailed study.

Thursday 14 August 2014

Defensives continue to rock (Nifty Cos performance in 1QFY15)

  1. Nifty companies (excluding Sesa Sterlite) consolidated profit growth came at 17.6%. However, if we look at the sector-wise and company-wise growth, it is not so impressive.
  2. In Auto Sector, Tata motors posted exceptional performance, while other Auto companies posted flat or negative growth. (Bajaj Auto, HeroMotocorp, M&M and Maruti)
  3. Most Cement company's profit fell, only Ambuja cement posted PAT growth of 26%. (Other cement companies ACC, Grasim, Ultratech)
  4. In capital goods space, where BHEL fell by more than 50%, L&T profit almost doubled.
  5. FMCG companies (HUVR, ITC) posted steady growth.
  6. I.T. companies posted very impressive growth (at least 30%). Tech Mahindra is an exception, whose profit fell by 8%.
  7. Pharma companies (Dr Reddy,Lupin and Sun Pharma) posted Pat growth more than 50%.
  8. Power sector had lack luster performance.
  9. Bharti Airtel’s PAT doubled.
  10. Banks posted 12% growth in profits.

To check the performance of NSE listed companies use this excel On-going Result Season

You can also use Stock Valuation Guide for more detailed study.


Nifty Companies Performance at glance for 1QFY15

Tuesday 12 August 2014

IIP Jun-14 (Are consumers shying away from markets ???)

  1. IIP for Jun-14 came at 3.4%, which does not indicate healthy recovery in growth momentum of Indian Economy, which most of us believe that is on its way.
  2. I personally believe that, If we see IIP growth of more than 5% consequently for few months, we can say that our economy’s growth engine has finally started once again.
  3. Consumer goods segment is this month’s dragger. At the same time Capital goods segment posted impressive growth of 23%.
  4. To get rid of seasonality impact, low / high base effect and such other issues, I prefer to look at 12 Month Moving Average (12MMA) YoY growth, where we can more easily analyze the trend.
  5. Accordingly one may conclude that, i) Manufacturing activities (accounts 76% of IIP) haven’t kicked. ii) Its only because of Mining and Electricity that General IIP (12MMA) growth is 1.6%. iii) Consumer goods, which accounts for 30% of IIP has 12 MMA growth of -3.1%, corresponding number for Jun-13 works out to be -0.13%. Are consumers shying away from markets ???


To enable you to dissect more on this, I have placed an Excel “IIP_and_its_constitutents_(Series 2004-05)” which you can use.

IIP and its Break-down across various categories (Monthly)
YoY Growth (%) for the month
Category Weight (%) Jun-14 May-14 Jun-13
1 Manufacturing 75.5 1.8 5.1 -1.7
2 Mining & Quarrying 14.2 4.3 2.9 -4.6
3 Electricity 10.3 15.7 6.7 0.0
General IIP 100.0 3.4 5.0 -1.8
Use based Categories
1 Basic Goods 45.7 9.0 6.4 -1.9
2 Capital Goods 8.8 23.0 4.3 -6.6
3 Intermediate Goods 15.7 2.7 3.2 1.3
4 Consumer Goods 29.8 -10.0 4.2 -1.5
4.1 Consumer Durables 8.5 -23.4 3.4 -10.1
4.2 Consumer Non-durables 21.4 0.1 4.8 6.2

12 Month Moving Average (MMA)
YoY Growth (%) for 12 MMA
Category Weight (%) Jun-14 May-14 Jun-13
1 Manufacturing 75.5 0.6 0.1 1.1
2 Mining & Quarrying 14.2 2.5 2.2 -4.2
3 Electricity 10.3 9.5 8.1 2.9
General IIP 100.0 1.6 1.1 0.7
Use based Categories
1 Basic Goods 45.7 5.7 4.7 0.8
2 Capital Goods 8.8 -0.6 -4.3 1.5
3 Intermediate Goods 15.7 3.1 3.5 1.6
4 Consumer Goods 29.8 -3.1 -2.3 -0.2
4.1 Consumer Durables 8.5 -9.8 -8.7 -7.8
4.2 Consumer Non-durables 21.4 1.7 2.1 6.0

Key Charts